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Will there be a decline in overseas study by 2030?
- JC Guedon
- Jul 1
- 3 min read
The QS Global Student Mobility Report projects that the number of international students worldwide will reach a peak of 8.5 million by 2030, but what we are seeing is a more fragmented and fiercely competitive landscape. The dominance of the four traditional powerhouses for international students—the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia—is weakening, with the Middle East and Asia emerging as new destinations for international students. While emerging source countries for international students such as India and Vietnam , are rapidly gaining popularity, Chinese families are becoming more cautious amid rising costs and uncertain returns. A profound shift in international education is underway . What does this mean for Chinese families sending their children to study abroad? Will there be a decline in overseas study by 2030?
Will there be a decline in overseas study by 2030?
The trend of studying abroad has not subsided.The number of international students is expected to reach 8.5 million by 2030.
Although the number of international students worldwide is still rising, the current student mobility pattern has undergone new changes.
Looking at long-term trends, international education remains highly attractive. Global student mobility continues its growth trajectory of the past few decades, with an estimated average annual growth rate of approximately 4% over the entire decade. If this trend does not fundamentally reverse, the total number of international students worldwide is expected to reach approximately 8.5 million by 2030 .
Although the trend of studying abroad has not subsided, the movement of international students has entered a more differentiated phase.
The United States remains the most important and popular study abroad destination in the world, but its absolute dominance has begun to weaken. The number of international students enrolled in the United States has not yet recovered to its peak level since the 2016/17 academic year . Even with the rebound following the pandemic, the overall size is still about 2% lower than the peak . In particular, the growth rate of international students in the United States will slow down significantly in the 2025-2026 academic year . The report points out that if there is no significant policy shift, the rate at which the United States attracts international students will likely continue to slow down in the coming years. If the US slows down, other countries will have an opportunity , and Britain may have the chance to be the biggest beneficiary.
The reinstatement of the Post-Study Work (PSW) visa for graduates and the overall policy environment being relatively friendly to international students have allowed the UK to once again reap the benefits of competition. The model predicts that by 2030, the number of international students in the UK may approach 900,000, compared to just over 700,000 at present. Although Australia and Canada are also tightening visa restrictions and controlling enrollment, they will remain among the top study abroad destinations due to their proximity to Asia, mature education systems, and relatively stable policies. However, the combined market share of the four traditional study abroad destinations is expected to decline from 40% ten years ago to about 35% in 2030, making it difficult to return to the golden age of ten years ago.
In fact, the trend of international students being highly concentrated in a few study abroad countries has not changed . The top 30 study abroad destinations in the world absorb nearly 90% of international students, but the internal rankings are slowly being reshuffled.
Some countries are steadily rising, such as Turkey, the UAE, Malaysia, and Japan , while others are beginning to decline, such as the Netherlands, which is facing some pressure.
The biggest change is in Russia, where the number of international students has decreased significantly due to the security situation, international image, and practical difficulties.
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